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All Hands on Deck: Building a Predictive Model of a Department of Defense Agency Program Management Workforce Needs

Case Study

All Hands on Deck: Building a Predictive Model of a Department of Defense Agency Program Management Workforce Needs

Censeo supported a Department of Defense Agency Acquisition Corps in understanding exactly what workforce would be required to develop products, and created a model that predicted future workload, streamlined workforce planning, and improved leadership decision-making.


The Department of Defense Agency program managers support development and acquisition of a diverse set of over 500 different products that “support the warfighter.” Historically, the agency did not have a strong understanding of what resources would be required to create or procure a new product. As resources became more limited, leadership decided the agency needed a more disciplined and consistent approach to forecasting workload requirements and assigning the workforce.


Censeo worked with stakeholders in each product sector to understand the differences and similarities across the agency’s product base, and to identify characteristics of weapon systems and products that were key drivers of workload (both by volume and type). Censeo then collected data from a representative sample of weapon systems and products, including data about the product itself and on the workforce and workload required to develop, produce and sustain those products.

With the data in place, Censeo isolated characteristics that where shown to drive resource requirements, determining what combination of statistically significant drivers best explained resource needs. Censeo then designed a working model of resource requirements for products based on the product characteristics. The model was designed for ease of usability and visualization of the outputs so that agency leadership could easily interpret results long after the project had ended.


The predictive resource model was the first (and, to date, only) model of its kind approved by the agency’s internal workforce analysis unit for use in developing workforce requirements. The client uses this model to determine resource requirements for each of its offices, allocate resources across program offices, and forecast future resourcing needs based on the product pipeline. The model provides agency leadership insight into both overarching and specific resourcing needs across the organization. By eliminating the need for concept plans to validate workforce requirements for each office, the approved model has saved the agency time and money.